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| 安全生产风险防控状态预测机制研究 |
| Research on predictive mechanism of safety production risk prevention and control |
| 投稿时间：2017-11-10 修订日期：2017-11-10 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 风险防控 马尔科夫预测 预警状态 安全培训 |
| 英文关键词: risk prevention and control the Markov prediction risk warning state security production training |
| 基金项目:国家科技攻关计划 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 79 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 建立安全生产风险防控状态预测机制，对预防企业安全生产事故的发生有着重大的意义。以安全生产隐患排查云服务平台中企业风险防控数据为基础，辨识企业安全生产风险点的危害因素，分析并对其量化，进而得出相应周期的安全生产风险防控状态影响统计值。运用马尔科夫理论建立数学模型，预测企业下一周期安全生产风险防控状态。根据预测的防控状态的级别及近期的风险点来评定企业是否存在安全风险，并采取相应的对策与措施，特别是对企业相关人员进行要求级别的培训。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| It is of great significance to establish the predictive mechanism of risk prevention and control in production and safety. Based on the data of enterprise risk prevention and control in the cloud server, It is possible to identify the risk factors of organization safety production risk, to analyze and quantify the risk factors, and then to obtain the statistical data of risk status in recent production and safety. Using the Markov predictive theory, the mathematical model can be established to predict the risk prevention and control status in near future. According to the level of predictive control status and the risks in recent past, it can be assessed that whether exists security risk in organization, and needs to take action and to select correspond people to be accepted training. |
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