基于组合赋权的超深层气藏效益建产评价

文章摘要

基于组合赋权的超深层气藏效益建产评价

Evaluation of benefit development in ultra-deep gas reservoir based on combined weight

投稿时间：2023-09-05 修订日期：2023-09-05

DOI：

中文关键词: 超深层气藏效益建产指标体系组合权重评价方法

英文关键词: Ultra-deep gas reservoir Benefit development Index system Combined weight Evaluation method

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）

作者	单位	邮编
张卫	重庆科技学院	401331
李继强^*	重庆科技学院	401331
戚会清	华东师范大学数学科学学院
刘勇	重庆科技学院
胡世莱	重庆科技学院
黄小亮	重庆科技学院
袁迎中	重庆科技学院

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中文摘要:

为解决我国超深层气藏效益建产评价技术难题，提高指标权重的准确性和可靠性，运用层次分析法和灰色关联度法，综合定量分析主观赋权和客观赋权方式，建立了适合超深层气藏的关键指标可变权重组合模型，并提出了基于TOPSIS的超深层气藏效益建产的评价方法。然后以中国石油某分公司的8个超深层气藏为例，对比分析了新方法与传统单一主观、客观赋权法的评价结果差异，新方法的推荐开发次序（C4→C2→C6→C1→C3→C7→C8→C5）相较于传统方法与实际已开发气藏情况更相符（收益率C4>C2>C6>C1）。新方法充分发挥了主观、客观赋权方法的优势，有效地削弱了单一赋权方法对指标权重的影响，大幅提高了超深层气藏效益建产的投资成功率和回报率。该研究成果为确定超深层气藏效益建产次序提供了有效的技术方法。

英文摘要:

To evaluate the benefits development of ultra-deep gas reservoirs and improve the accuracy and reliability of index weights, establish a weight model of the critical index combinations suitable for ultra-deep gas reservoirs by integrating the subjective and objective weight methods into Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). Furthermore, a novel TOPSIS-based method is proposed to evaluate benefit development in ultra-deep gas reservoirs. Based on this new method, the development benefit of eight blocks of PetroChina are evaluated，the difference between the evaluation results of the new method and traditional methods, single subjective and single objective weighting method, are compared and analyzed respectively. The recommended development order of the new method (C4→C2→C6→C1→C3→C7→C8→C5) is in line with the actual situation of developed gas reservoirs (yield rate C4>C2>C6>C1), which is more reasonable and reliable than that of traditional methods. The new method can effectively weaken the influence of a single approach on the index weights by exploiting the advantages of the AHP and GRA to the full, and greatly improve the success rate and return rate of investment in the benefit construction of ultra-deep gas reservoirs. This study can help scholars and engineers effectively estimate the benefits of development in ultra-deep gas reservoirs.

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